Arab stock markets cautious on recession worries

Arab stocks were volatile last week reflecting investors’ fears over world economic recovery and the continuing fallout of the downgrading of the US sovereign debt risk by Standard and Poor’s (S&P), financial analysts said.

They expected regional markets to remain in a lackluster mood in the coming weeks pending better clues that the world economy was not heading to a fresh recession.

”I believe Arab markets, particularly in the oil-rich Gulf region, will continue to be affected by what happens in the US and Europe in the coming weeks,” Nizar Taher, chief of brokerage at the Jordan Ahli Bank, told Arab News.

”Gulf economies maintain direct links with US and European markets and, accordingly, they are affected by all developments there,” he said. However, Taher said that Gulf stock markets stood to gain in the medium and long terms from the strong macroeconomic fundamentals of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states and their huge public spending.

Arab banking and investment executives have put the Arab holdings of US Treasury bonds at more than $500 billion.

Saudi shares rebounded last week, led by the petrochemical and banking sectors, after suffering from the S&P’s downgrading of the US sovereign debt over the past couple of weeks.

The Tadawul All-Share Index (TASI) gained 0.81 percent on weekly basis, closing at 6,088.25 points.

”We cannot say that the Saudi market has stopped to take into account the outside effects, simply because the global economic worries are set to affect the prices of oil and petrochemical products, which are important for the local market,” said Saudi analyst Mohammad Anqari.

He expected ”ambiguity” to dominate Arab stock markets in the coming six weeks ”because all figures due to be published about the world economy will be of crucial importance to the region.”

However, Anqari expected Saudi shares to rally after the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan expires by the end of August.