Opinion: 30 June business risks

Planned protests mean 30 June will be a big day in politics for Egypt. For companies, it increases short-term risks and challenges of doing business, largely because of the disruptions. Things can start to improve if the day and the Tamarod campaign are successful in moving Egyptian leaders representing different interests towards honest dialogue. Until this happens, protests and violence will continue to increase risks for businesses in post-revolutionary Egypt.

On the one-year anniversary of President Mohammed Morsi’s inauguration, supporters of the Tamarod campaign will take to the streets in an expression of no confidence. The movement has collected about half of its 15 million-signature goal, declaring 30 June a day of peaceful protest and a milestone in its pursuit of a change of leadership for Egypt. It proposes holding early presidential elections with a five-member interim transitional council holding presidential powers.

Meanwhile businesses are trying to predict what this day means for them. A scenario, where Egyptians take to the streets in extremely large numbers followed by a continuation of massive protests and violence as in the early days of the 25 January Revolution, fortunately for business, is unlikely. Yes these were historical days for Egypt. But for business, at least one to two months of disruptions immediately followed, remaining as a regular part of doing business, particularly when bigger protests lead to street clashes.

The ideal scenario here would be large, peaceful protests that ultimately cause little to no disruption to business. Some minimal disruptions to productivity are certain. If nothing else, more time is spent on coffee chatter. A utopian scenario includes large peaceful protests leading to an acknowledgement of a non-trivial number of Egyptian voters being dissatisfied with the state of affairs. They have signed the Tamarod campaign to indicate as much and a recent poll indicates that half of those aware of the campaign would also sign. In this dream scenario, a legitimate dialogue by the major players representing the interests of differing Egyptians would soon follow.