Egypt: Improving food security

As the world’s largest wheat importer, Egypt is increasing its domestic grain production, in a bid to reduce its dependency on volatile international markets and to meet rising demand from its 85m people, but with rising production unlike to satisfy domestic consumption, import volumes are expected to rise in the coming three years.

The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC), the state grain-buying organisation, announced in early June that it has purchased 2.6m tonnes of locally grown wheat in the 2011/12 season, up some 400,000 tonnes in 2011. The season ends on July 15, by which time the authority aims to have secured 3m tonnes of Egyptian wheat, up from 2.6m last year.

The increasing purchases of domestic wheat should help Egypt reduce its imports this year, but crucially, the larger-than-normal bulk buys come on the back of a surprising jump in cultivation and production from local farmers.

Domestic wheat output rose 17% to 8.4m tonnes in the 2010-11 season, considerably more than the average of 7.9m tonnes over the past five years, due to an increase in cultivated area improved seeds and higher prices paid to domestic farmers by the government. Since October 2011, farmers have received LE380 (€ 49) per 140 kg, up from LE350 (€ 45.50) last season, in an attempt to incentivise wheat production.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) has reported that the outlook for the 2012 winter cereal crop – which is harvested from April – is “generally favourable”. Its initial forecasts suggest wheat output of 8.46m tonnes, similar to the good yield in 2011.

Overall, the FAO forecasts that Egypt’s cereal production will reach 22.66m tonnes in 2012, up 2% from 22.23m tonnes in 2011, and above the 22.22m-tonne average in the 2007-11 period. It expects corn production to rise 3.1% in 2012, from 7.32m to 7.55m tonnes, and rice paddy output to reach 5.8m tonnes.