Many Arabs stay hopeful even as economies sag

The upheavals of the Arab Spring have created clear economic winners and losers in the Middle East and North Africa, with some economies withering in the face of unrest and others prospering on the rise in oil prices that resulted.

But a Gallup Poll of economic optimism among the region’s people released on Monday paints a very different picture than the economic reality. In a few countries, confidence or lack thereof mirrors actual conditions but, in many, respondents to the poll expressed views at variance with the economy.

In Egypt, a 42 percent plurality of people see conditions in their country “getting” better, versus 37 percent who said it is “getting worse,” according to the survey of 1,000 adults in each of 16 countries covered. The poll was taken between February and June 2011 even as the economy contracted, foreign currency reserves fell and foreign investment dried up.

Egypt’s situation hasn’t improved since the end of the polling period, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting growth of just 1.2 percent this year, a fifth of its level before protestors ousted President Husni Mubarak last February, setting into motion the political and economic gyrations that continue today.

Egyptian shares dropped to the lowest level in more than two years on Monday, a day after clashes between Coptic Christian demonstrators and security forces in Cairo left 24 dead and hundreds wounded. The declines pushed the index’s year-to-date losses to over 45 percent so far.

The Gallup survey found Tunisians even more optimistic, with half of the respondents saying the economy is doing better, compared with 20 percent who said it was doing worse and 27 percent saying it was “staying the same.” In fact, Tunisia’s tourism earnings have dropped 40 percent so far this year while foreign investment plunged 25 percent in the first four months. The IMF projects zero growth for the economy.