Why South Sudan is Egypt’s new headache over Nile water treaty

But however hard it may try Cairo is now confronted with new realities as an independent South Sudan, which controls a substantial part of the River Nile, has been born.

South Sudan, which could choose a new slate as far as treaties are concerned, could inevitably prove to be the North African state’s biggest test over the Nile waters.
Egypt and Sudan (Khartoum) have been at odds with upriver nations over their efforts to overturn colonial era-treaties granting them the lion’s share of the river’s water.

But recent developments in the two countries and in the region have significantlyturned the tide against them. In Egypt, long-serving President Hosni Mubarak was ousted by popular protests in mid-February.

Leaked diplomatic cables

The military council that now runs the country also arrested several of Mubarak’s former ministers.As if the February regime change was not enough, South Sudan, which has been an observer at past Nile treaty negotiations, now wants to claim its rightful place at the discussions and has already applied to accede to the treaty.

Leaked US diplomatic cables revealed that in 2009 Cairo was uncomfortable with a divided Sudan, fearing an independent South would threaten its stranglehold on the River Nile waters.

In the cables published by online whistleblower WikiLeaks, a former foreign ministry official had even asked the US government to help postpone the January 2011 referendum by four to six years. The official said the creation of “a non-viable state” could threaten Egypt’s access to Nile waters so vital to the country’s agriculture.

But Egypt could renew ties with Ethiopia, which endured more than a decade of lukewarm relations with the Mubarak regime after the June 1995 attempted assassination of the Egyptian leader in Addis Ababa.