Egypt's best option: a secular gov't committed to economic reform

I doubt that Egypt will turn to democracy. For six years I represented the Government of Egypt on the board of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). On many trips to Cairo I met senior business people and politicians.

The ruling elite has long convinced itself that Egypt could not allow democratic freedom because this would open the door to well organized Islamic extremists. They talked about economic reform as a means to deny extremists from gathering support from young disaffected unemployed, but their reforms were so slow and insignificant that there has never been enough economic progress to meet the needs of a population growing by about one million every 10 months. As a result, Egypt has never really established a vocal moderate middle class to act as a counterweight to minority extremism.

Egypt is a key strategic player with a population bigger than Germany and an accepted role as a regional leader. What happens next in Egypt is critical for the region. Regardless of the politics, without economic progress, Egypt will face continuing problems.

In the late 1980s, when the Berlin Wall finally collapsed, there was no doubt that the people of Eastern Europe wanted to be free and to rejoin the European community. They threw off Moscow's shackles and genuine democracy soon flowered. Unlike the Egyptians, these Europeans had the cultural and historical background to make the break from brutal communist dictatorships.

They also embraced the concept of a free market to complement their democratic freedom and are now free; politically and economically. Their economic freedom buttresses their political freedom.

An Egyptian government that was secular and liberal would be more likely to respect the basic human rights of women. And a government committed to economic reform would offer the prospect of more jobs and higher living standards. This is Egypt's best option.