Egyptian inflation seen edging up to 12.5% in December

Egypt's headline inflation is expected to have inched up to 12.5% in ‍December from ‍12.3% in November as food prices, a major part of ​the inflation basket, remained relatively stable, a Reuters poll found on Wednesday.

The state ⁠statistics agency Capmas is scheduled to release December data on Saturday.

The median ⁠forecast for ‌annual headline urban consumer inflation was calculated from a poll of 16 analysts. In November, inflation fell unexpectedly.

"Prices of goods ⁠and services were stable during the month, including poultry and eggs," Hany Genena of Pharos said.

"Poultry prices started to increase in January, which may push month-on-month inflation up in January 2026, ⁠but not December 2025."

Five analysts also ​provided predictions for core inflation, which omits volatile items such as certain food and fuel products, ‍forecasting it would slip to a median 12.4% from 12.5% in November. The ​polling data was collected over January 5-7.

Annual inflation has plummeted from a record high of 38% in September 2023, helped by an $8 billion financial support package signed with the IMF in March 2024.

An expanding money supply has helped fuel inflation. M2 money supply climbed to an annual 22.14% in November from 21.68% in October, central bank data showed. That was down from a peak of 31.5% in January 2023.

Cooling inflation prompted ⁠the central bank to cut its overnight lending ‌rate by 100 basis points to 21.00% in December, bringing total cuts in 2025 to 725 points.

The bank's monetary policy committee ‌is next ⁠scheduled to meet on February 12 to review overnight interest rates.