Egyptian pound faces short-term pressure but steadies by 2025-end

The Egyptian pound is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, but Fitch Solutions’ research arm, BMI, sees a slightly improved outlook for the currency by the end of 2025, despite ongoing global uncertainties.

In its latest report, MENA Monthly Outlook: Most MENA Currencies Will Likely Preserve Their Gains in 2H 2025, BMI maintained the pound's projected trading range at EGP 50–55 per US dollar. The report cites Egypt’s substantial external financing needs and continued monetary policy easing as key factors behind the currency’s near-term depreciation.

However, BMI now expects the pound to close 2025 at EGP 52/USD—a modest upward revision from its earlier forecast of EGP 52.53/USD—on the back of limited portfolio outflows.

The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) has cautiously begun easing monetary policy, cutting key interest rates by a cumulative 325 basis points since the beginning of 2025. Amid the Israeli-Iranian escalation, the Egyptian pound has experienced volatility as investors moved towards safe-haven assets.

“Investor reaction to the recent US tariff announcement was less severe than anticipated,” BMI noted. “Only $2.1 billion exited Egypt after the tariffs were unveiled, which initially sent the pound to EGP 51.68/USD on 9 April. Since then, the currency and capital inflows have recovered, especially after the 90-day tariff pause and the US-UK and US-China trade agreements calmed markets.”