Egypt’s annual headline inflation rate increases to 13.5% in April 2025

Egypt's inflationary trend continued its upward trajectory in April 2025, with the annual inflation rate rising to 13.5 percent, compared to 13.1 percent in March, according to the latest figures from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded 253.8 points in April, up from 250.6 the previous month. Despite this annual increase, monthly inflation saw a slight slowdown, registering 1.3 percent in April, down from 1.6 percent in March.

The report attributes the inflationary pressure to notable price hikes in essential sectors. Electricity, gas, and fuel costs jumped by 6.7 percent, while private transportation costs rose by 8.6 percent, and transport services increased by 8.2 percent. Additionally, vehicle prices grew by 1.3 percent, vegetable prices by 1.2 percent, and grains and bread by 0.5 percent, adding further strain to consumer budgets.

As inflation gains momentum, international institutions have called for caution. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Egypt to adopt a prudent approach to monetary policy amid ongoing regional and global uncertainties, warning that premature loosening could amplify inflationary risks. This aligns with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to maintain interest rates for a third consecutive time, keeping them within the 4.25 to 4.5 percent range.

Looking ahead, Fitch Ratings anticipates Egypt’s inflation rate could reach 14 percent by the end of fiscal year 2024/2025, driven primarily by the latest fuel price adjustments. However, it expects inflation to ease to around 10.5 percent during fiscal year 2025/2026 as the economy adjusts to the current wave of cost pressures.

In a broader outlook, the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts Egypt’s average inflation to hit 19.7 percent for the current fiscal year, before declining to approximately 12.5 percent in 2025/2026, suggesting a gradual return to more stable inflation levels once external and domestic shocks begin to subside.