Egyptian inflation seen edging down to 12.6% in March
Egypt's annual inflation is forecast to have edged down further in March after a base effect caused it to plunge in February, according to a Reuters poll.
The drop in annual inflation is likely to push the Central Bank of Egypt to cut interest rates when it meets on April 17, although it may keep any cut relatively small because of turmoil in international markets following U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes, analysts said.
The median forecast of 14 analysts polled by Reuters was for annual urban consumer inflation to have slipped to 12.6% in March from 12.8% in February. The polling data was collected from March 27 to April 7.
Year-on-year inflation was 24.0% in January, before a base effect took hold after a year of financial reforms.
"We expect CPI to edge down slightly to 12.5% y-o-y from 12.8% in February on softer food and education costs," said Sri Virinchi Kadiyala of Abu Dhabi's ADCB.
"However, a more pressing concern for the CBE will be the ongoing volatility in global financial markets. If risk off sentiment worsens over the coming weeks, this increases the risk of CBE remaining on pause," Kadiyala said.
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