IIF projects Egypt’s GDP growth at 3.3% for FY2023/24

The expected growth rate represents a slowdown from the 3.8 percent growth achieved in FY2022/2023.

The Egyptian government adjusted its growth forecast for FY2023/24 in early December, lowering the projection to 3.5 percent from the previously anticipated 4.2 percent.

In October, the World Bank revised its growth forecasts for Egypt for 2023 to 4.2 percent, up from 4 percent.

However, the bank downgraded the country's growth forecast for 2024 to 3.7 percent, down from 4 percent.

Following suit, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) adjusted its predictions, increasing Egypt's real GDP growth projection for 2023 to 4.2 percent from 3.7 percent, while lowering the forecast for 2024 to 3.6 percent from 4.1 percent.

Exports decline
 

The IIF highlighted several factors that could cause a decline in Egypt's exports in FY2023/2024, including growing inflation, a shortage of foreign currency, geopolitical tensions, and disruption in commodity supply, which are anticipated to weaken private-sector consumption.

Due to export restrictions during the summer months, which were imposed to meet strong domestic demand for energy, the institute stated that Egypt's hydrogen exports could go down in the current FY.

Furthermore, tensions in the Middle East, including the conflict in Gaza, have impacted the import of Israeli natural gas to Egypt, which in turn, has hurt the country's re-exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), IIF added.

Egypt’s trade deficit declined by 23.59 percent during the fiscal year 2022/2023, primarily due to a significant decline in non-oil imports.