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How deep are Egypt's economic troubles?

Some of the causes date back decades, such as failed industrial development and export policies that created a persistent trade deficit.
05.03.23 | Source: Zawya

 Egypt's economy has come under severe pressure over the past year, with the Egyptian pound tumbling, foreign currency drying up, and inflation soaring.


WHAT CAUSED EGYPT'S ECONOMIC WOES?


Some of the causes date back decades, such as failed industrial development and export policies that created a persistent trade deficit.


An over-valued currency, weak property rights and institutions, and an overbearing state and military have deterred investment and competition. Subsidies - though now reduced - have long drained the budget.


Foreign investment outside the oil and gas sector has been paltry, leaving receipts from remittances, Suez Canal transit fees and tourism to play a crucial role.


President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi often blames turmoil following a 2011 uprising and rapid population growth -- the World Bank put annual population growth at 1.7% in 2021 -- for the country's economic struggles. Since 2020, authorities have pointed to external shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine.


But analysts also cite policy missteps including costly defence of the Egyptian pound, a dependence on fickle foreign portfolio investments, and a failure to carry out structural reforms.


HOW BAD HAVE THINGS BECOME?


The economy has been growing steadily, but the impact of that growth - forecast at 4% to 5% this year - is blunted by the population surge. Many Egyptians say their standard of living has been eroded.


Since March 2022, Egypt's pound has depreciated by nearly 50% against the dollar. An acute dollar shortage has suppressed imports and caused a backlog of goods at ports, with a knock-on effect on local industry.


Annual headline inflation surged to 25.8% in January, the highest level for five years, according to official data. Prices for many staple foods have risen much faster.


Official data classified about 30% of the population as poor before COVID-19 struck, and analysts say numbers have risen since then. As many as 60% of Egypt's 104 million citizens are estimated to be below, or close to the poverty line.


Unemployment has fallen to just over 7%, but labour market participation also dropped steadily in the decade to 2020. Parts of the public education system are in a state of collapse. Many graduates with the opportunity to do so seek work abroad.


WHAT SUPPORT CAN EGYPT DRAW ON?


Both Western and Gulf states have broadly viewed Egypt under Sisi as a lynchpin of security in a volatile region.


As the fallout from the Ukraine war delivered Egypt its latest economic shock, Cairo received billions in deposits and investments from Gulf allies including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

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