Egypt records lowest unemployment rate in 20 years

In a rare moment of economic optimism, Egypt has marked a significant milestone: the national unemployment rate has fallen to 6.4%, the lowest level in two decades, according to Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly. The announcement came during a weekly cabinet press conference, with the prime minister emphasizing that this is more than a statistical dip — it’s a signal of long-term structural shifts in Egypt’s labor market.

The rate, which applies to the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024/2025, reflects a broader trend of improvement over the last ten years. In 2014, Egypt’s unemployment hovered around 13%. Now, it’s less than half that, signaling what the government hopes is a sustainable economic turnaround.

While the headline figure is promising, a deeper dive reveals persistent gaps. Youth unemployment — a critical issue in a country where over 60% of the population is under 30 — currently stands at 14.2%. That’s a major drop from 26.5% a decade ago, but still nearly triple the overall rate.

The disparity underscores ongoing challenges in integrating young people into the labor market, especially amid rapid population growth and a mismatch between education and job market demands.

The government’s announcement comes on the heels of controversial remarks by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff, who claimed youth unemployment in Egypt was closer to 45%. His comment, made during an interview with Tucker Carlson, stirred backlash among Egyptian officials and economists alike.

Madbouly firmly rejected the claim, stating that Egypt’s labor data is measured using internationally recognized standards and reviewed by global institutions. He also stressed that figures are released transparently by Egypt’s Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS).

According to CAPMAS, not only has unemployment decreased, but the labor force grew by 2.8%, reaching 33.12 million in Q4 — an indication that more people are actively seeking and finding work.

The unemployment milestone is part of a broader narrative the government is pushing: that Egypt’s economy is stabilizing and on track for future growth. GDP grew by 4.3% in the second quarter, and while some sectors like oil extraction and the Suez Canal faced short-term slowdowns, others showed resilience.

Inflation is cooling, foreign reserves remain stable, and reforms in banking and infrastructure are underway. A recent agreement with the International Finance Corporation to manage Egypt’s airports reflects a shift toward strategic partnerships rather than privatization — aimed at boosting efficiency and tourism without triggering public concern over asset sales.

Madbouly expressed confidence that if global conditions improve, Egypt could see growth rise to 6%, with ripple effects across employment and investment. But experts warn that keeping unemployment low — particularly among youth — will require sustained focus on education reform, vocational training, and private sector stimulation.

Still, hitting a 6.4% unemployment rate in a country that once struggled with double digits is no small feat. Whether this is a turning point or just a temporary upswing remains to be seen, but for now, the numbers tell a rare story of progress.