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What if terrorism is no longer a problem for Egypt?

The ECES examines the impact of terrorism on the economy and the possible scenarios ahead of Egypt.
Scenario 1

In this scenario, government responds effectively against terrorist attacks:

- The tourism sector thrives, rising from 12.6 percent of GDP in 2013 to 17.5 percent in 2024, generating a total of approx. 4 million jobs that year.

- Public investments grow significantly with LE 180 billion expected in the fiscal year 2015/16 and LE 237 billion in private investments with a growth rate of 15 percent in total investments.

- Private consumption continues to grow at a steady 5 percent as of 2015/16.

Scenario 2

In this scenario, terrorist attacks resist the increasing security measures of the government:

- Number of tourists decreases dramatically by almost 11 percent on average annually to reach 3 million tourists, generating only $ 500 million in revenues by 2024 (an average annual decrease of 19 percent).

- Investments decline, leading to a decrease in real GDP growth by 1 percent annually. e

- Private consumption decreases therefore, slowing economic activity due to an increasing sense of anxiety and insecurity.