Reuters poll reveals regional economists’ predictions for Egyptian economic growth

Economists have lowered their growth projections for Egypt’s economy in the coming years, citing factors such as tariffs imposed by the United States and expectations of a slowdown in global economic growth, according to a Reuters poll.

The poll, conducted between April 9 and 23, surveyed 17 economists, who now predict Egypt’s GDP will expand by 3.8 percent in the current fiscal year (FY2024/2025), down from the 4.0 percent forecast made in January.

Growth is also expected to ease slightly in FY2025/2026, with a 4.6 percent expansion predicted, down from the previous 4.7 percent forecast.

Sri Virinchi Kadiyala of Abu Dhabi’s ADCB noted that the main impact of escalating trade tensions on Egypt is felt indirectly, through diminishing business and investor confidence.

On the other hand, Ivan Burgara of the Institute of International Finance (IIF) argued that Egypt is somewhat insulated from U.S. tariffs, owing to a trade surplus with the U.S. and the relatively small volume of trade between the two countries.