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The Twitter-Algorithm for success is here

What if one could predict how successful a single tweet will be, before posting it? Today, it is possible.

A tweet is a sentence that does not exceed 140 characters – and Twitter gets 340 million of them on a daily basis. No matter in what field and what position: almost everyone who is considered a public figure – or not – tweets their life away.

Today - thanks to HP Labs and the University of California in Los Angeles - tweeples can predict how popular and/or successful their tweet will be and thus decide, if they will post it or not. Not only prominent people, but also your “tweeple-next-door” will be able to see beforehand where his tweet will reach.

“The success of a tweet can be forecast up to 84%,” according to the Director of Social Computing Lab from HP Labs Bernardo Huberman. After monitoring up to 40.000 tweets in August 2011, the researchers started analyzing the “twitter-density” of each via retweets and shared links.

The basis behind the algorithm relies on the hypothesis that a tweet’s effectiveness depends on four factors: the source, the category, the tone and the mentioning of prominent names or brands.

Huberman believes that the algorithm and the research as a whole can be very useful for journalists and PR-consultants, because it shows what really matters in a tweet. For example, an exuberant writing-style does not gain more reach than a sober one. Also, since we live in a world of brands, it is natural that big names achieve more reach and credibility than unknown bloggers, and of course, the reputation of a tweeple is a decisive factor.